Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 1.593117 2.093150 2.766851 3.764490 5.246319 7.437953 11.070737
2025-02-02 1.108632 1.658352 2.537052 4.130512 7.162716 13.216425 27.979341
2025-02-09 0.801448 1.329579 2.301902 4.412297 9.513690 23.581708 79.373342
2025-02-16 0.580513 1.046010 2.008764 4.454415 11.873297 40.733345 255.813609
2025-02-23 0.419240 0.805404 1.681570 4.221120 13.679280 65.907908 954.753791
2025-03-02 0.302674 0.610072 1.358745 3.769828 14.466302 97.121753 4263.444692
2025-03-09 0.246874 0.526984 1.270779 4.009831 19.442914 222.374970 240474.140950
2025-03-16 0.201913 0.452274 1.168215 4.141729 25.282904 545.665665 NaN
2025-03-23 0.172249 0.405017 1.123371 4.518840 36.222415 2041.428626 NaN
2025-03-30 0.147481 0.361665 1.068714 4.834505 51.172002 11358.994344 NaN
2025-04-06 0.123068 0.310720 0.960274 4.735073 62.560529 72294.037292 NaN
2025-04-13 0.101187 0.260364 0.828810 4.332480 67.152817 506823.863856 NaN
2025-04-20 0.087889 0.232995 0.777572 4.473246 91.829768 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.078836 0.216167 0.761830 4.915009 146.382145 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.070433 0.198757 0.734420 5.253952 227.829725 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.062045 0.178796 0.684236 5.297125 315.770119 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.053831 0.157133 0.614541 5.001599 370.775921 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.046094 0.135286 0.534046 4.441713 363.496593 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.042264 0.126818 0.519954 4.731642 603.057556 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.038547 0.117755 0.498052 4.889812 950.334183 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.035952 0.112297 0.493930 5.350289 1953.729532 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.033442 0.106480 0.484663 5.736719 4126.906716 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.030383 0.097689 0.452535 5.611470 6088.277328 NaN NaN